Buy USDINR; target of 69.50 - 69.60: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.

ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR

Spot Currency

The rupee ended higher by 6 paise vs. the US$ yesterday tracking a mild recovery in domestic equities as well as consolidation in US$. However, it is expected to open sharply lower today tracking strong gains in the US$ • The US dollar ended with sharp gains with the dollar index rising to almost two and a half year highs. Although the Fed cut the rate by 25 bps as expected, it disappointed investors who were looking for the start of a rate cut cycle. The Fed chairman has kept the doors open for further policy moves, which makes incoming data very crucial. Most currencies are currently trading lower against US$.

Currency futures on NSE

The dollar-rupee August contract on the NSE was at 68.98 in the previous session. Open interest declined 9.84% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.

Intra-day strategy 

US$INR August futures contract (NSE)	View: Bullish on US$INR
Buy US$ in the range of 69.18 -69.22	Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 69.50 / 69.60	Stop Loss: 69.03
Support	Resistance
S1/ S2: 69.18 / 69.00	R1/R2:69.40 / 69.60

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Global gold demand rise 8% to 1,123 tonne in April-June: WGC

Bars and coins saw 12% drop in the second quarter mainly due to China following the easing of currency concerns and high prices.

Global gold demand grew by 8 percent year-on-year to 1,123 tonne in the April-June quarter of 2019, mainly driven by central banks purchases and rise in investments in gold-backed ETFs, according to a report.

The overall demand in the second quarter of 2018 was at 1,038.8 tonne, according to the World Gold Council's Q2 Gold Demand Trends report.

As per the report, central banks' demand grew by 67 percent as they bought 224.4 tonne of gold in April-June 2019, compared to 152.8 tonne a year ago.

Poland was the largest purchaser during the quarter, as the country added 100 tonne to its reserves, bumping giant purchaser Russia into second place, the report said.

Total investment demand was 1 per cent firmer year-on-year, as healthy exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in Europe counterbalanced a 12 per cent drop in bar and coin demand, the report added.

The holdings of gold-backed ETFs grew 67.2 tonne in April-June period to a six-year high of 2,548 tonne.

"Continued geopolitical instability, dovish commentary on monetary policy from central banks, and the rallying gold price in June were the main factors driving inflows into the sector in Europe," WGC Managing Director, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI here.

Bars and coins saw 12 percent drop in the second quarter mainly due to China following the easing of currency concerns and high prices.

WGC Head of Market Intelligence Alistair Hewitt said June was a big month for gold as the price broke out of a multi-year trading range to hit a six-and-a-half year high and gold-backed ETF assets-under-management grew by 15 per cent - the largest monthly increase since 2012.

"While the Fed's dovish turn was a key driver for this, it also builds on a strong H1 which saw gold demand hit a three-year high, underpinned by extremely strong central bank buying. But we also saw an uptick in sales at an individual level as investors took advantage of June's price rally to lock-in profits, jewellery recycling and retail bar and coin liquidations both rose," he added.

Meanwhile, the jewellery demand witnessed 2 percent growth at to 531.7 tonne from from 520.8 tonne in same period of 2018, due to strong recovery in India's jewellery market driven by a busy wedding season and healthy festival sales, before the June price rise brought it to a virtual standstill.

Gold supply grew 6 percent in Q2 to 1,186.7 tonne from 1,121.3 tonne in the same period last year boosted by the sharp June gold price rally.

A record 882.6 tonne for Q2 gold mine production and a 9 percent jump in recycling to 314.6 tonne led the growth in supply.

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Dilip Buildcon gains 2% after bagging dam project

Company said it has been declared L-1 bidder by the Water Resources Department for the project in Jharkhand.

Dilip Buildcon shares gained 2 percent intraday on July 30 as the construction company bagged order to construct a dam in Jharkhand.

The stock rallied 28 percent in the last six months. It was quoting Rs 420.60, up Rs 3.70, or 0.89 percent on the BSE at 1113 hours.

"Company has been declared L-1 bidder for the project 'construction of Kharkai Dam at Icha with all control gates and its allied works including civil, mechanical (with design of gates), electrical and SCADA System under SMP in Jharkhand," Dilip Buildcon said in its BSE filing.

The company further informed exchanges that it has been declared L-1 bidder by the Water Resources Department for the project in Jharkhand.

In addition, its wholly-owned subsidiaries DBL Sangli Borgaon Highways Private Limited and DBL Mangalwedha Solapur Highways Private Limited received the appointed date i.e May 23, 2019, from the National Highways Authority of India.

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Buy HDFC Life Insurance Company; target of Rs 585: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on HDFC Life Insurance Company has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 585 in its research report date July 24, 2019

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on HDFC Life Insurance Company

HDFC Life's overall APE grew strong 66% YoY driven by WRP growth of 58% YoY. Company saw sharp change in mix of individual APE with non-par savings mix going to 63% from 20% at end of FY19 mainly driven by strong growth in new product launched Sanchay Plus which is return guaranteed product (endowment).

 Strong growth in non-par, continued growth in retail protection and continued annuity focus has led to strong margin improvement of 260bps QoQ to 29.8%. New product carries risk of interest rate shocks but management mentioned but carries hedges from the segment products hence sensitivity from rate movement is limited. 

We adjust assumptions to factor in strong APE growth & sharp margin improvement but marginally lower EV to factor in lower unwind rate

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Buy Jubilant FoodWorks; target of Rs 1459: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on Jubilant FoodWorks has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1459 in its research report date July 24, 2019.

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Jubilant FoodWorks

We cut our FY20 and FY21 EPS estimate by 10.6% and 10.5% which includes ~8% impact due to IndAS 116 impact. 1Q has shown tepid performnce due to high base, store cannibalisation and impact of high prices of raw materials. 

However we remain positive on the medium term growth prospects of JUBI due to 1) unchanged guidance of 100 Dominos store additions 2) ~4% price increase after 3 years does not disturb consumer value proposition 3) menu innovations with World Pizza league 4) new store design to imbibe efficiencies in operations. 

We believe that Dominos will not be impacted by food aggregators given strong brand and its strength in delivery based model. Although deterioraion in consumer sentiment poses a near term challenge, we excpect Dominos to emerge stronger once the demand revives. We estimate mid to high single SSG and PAT growth of 9.7% in FY20 and 25.4% in FY21.

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Tata Motors shares fall 4% after Fitch downgrades long term issuer rating

Fitch rates Tata Motors on a consolidated basis including 100 percent of JLR, considering its ability to access cash at JLR despite weak legal and operational ties

Shares Tata Motors fell nearly 4 percent intraday on July 24 after global rating agency Fitch downgraded company's long term issuer rating with negative outlook.

The stock was quoting at Rs 152.05, down Rs 4.15, or 2.66 percent on the BSE at 1402 hours IST.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Tata Motors to 'BB-' from 'BB', saying the outlook is negative.

"The rating has been removed from 'rating watch negative' where it was placed on February 6," it added.

Fitch rates Tata Motors on a consolidated basis including 100 percent of JLR, considering its ability to access cash at JLR despite weak legal and operational ties.

The downgrade reflects the reduction in Fitch's expectations for Tata Motors' profitability and free cash generation in the next two to three years.

Fitch said it revised estimates because business risks have increased in both its India operations and its fully owned UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover Automotive plc.

This will result in a sustained deterioration in company's financial profile, including its leverage, it added.

The global agency said the rating action follows a similar action on JLR's rating on 16 July 2019. It rated JLR at 'BB-' with negative outlook.

Uncertainty around an orderly outcome of Brexit negotiations and the evolving global tariffs situation pose risks, in particular to Tata Motors' JLR business, which faces a significant level of production-sales mismatch due to concentration of its production base in the UK, it added.

The rating agency said JLR's heavy reliance on the sales of diesel variants exposes it to unfavourable regulations in Europe.

JLR plans to offer electric variants for all of its models by 2020, but unexpected delays could dampen sales performance, according to Fitch.

It expects India's auto sales volumes to stabilise gradually with the re-election of the government in May 2019, but prolonged weakness in sales would exert further pressure on leverage.

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OBC gains 2% on posting profit in June quarter

The net interest income of the company was up 2.6 percent at Rs 1,371.6 crore against Rs 1,337.3 crore.

Shares of Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) gained 2.5 percent intraday July 22 after company posted profit in the quarter ended June 2019 (Q1FY20). The company reported profit of Rs 112.7 crore against loss of Rs 393.2 crore in a year ago period.

Its gross NPA stood at 12.56% against 12.66%, while net NPA was at 5.91% versus 5.93%, QoQ.

The net interest income of the company was up 2.6 percent at Rs 1,371.6 crore against Rs 1,337.3 crore.

Provisions for the quarter stood at Rs 842.4 crore versus Rs 1,051.5 crore, QoQ; and versus Rs 1,539.5 crore, YoY.

At 14:04 hrs Oriental Bank of Commerce was quoting at Rs 82.65, up Rs 0.65, or 0.79 percent on the BSE.

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